USD/JPY Feast or Famine? Bulls Eye Resistance

USD/JPY Feast or Famine? Bulls Eye Resistance

Japanese Yen Technical Value Outlook: USD/JPY Weekly Commerce Ranges

  • Japanese Yen technical commerce ranges replace – Weekly Chart
  • USD/JPY rebound as soon as once more testing Fibonacci pivot zone
  • Key Close to-term resistance at 109.68/92 – Assist 107.76

The Japanese Yen is nearly unchanged in opposition to the US Dollar because the begin of the week with USD/JPY ranging just under a key resistance picot we’ve been monitoring for weeks now. Whereas the broader technical focus stays weighted to the topside, the speedy advance could also be weak whereas under this key threshold and we’re in search of potential inflection within the days forward for steerage. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the USD/JPY weekly worth chart heading into tomorrow’s extremely anticipated FOMC fee determination. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen technical setup and extra.

Japanese Yen Value Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Weekly - US Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Ready by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes: In my final Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook (March) we famous that the USD/JPY rally was approaching a vital resistance zone at, “109.68/92– the speedy advance stays weak whereas under this threshold near-term.” In traditional yen style, costs surged larger the next week to register a excessive at 110.96 earlier than reversing sharply decrease with a 3 week decline rebounding final week off confluence help on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly vary and the 2017 low-week shut at 107.76/83. Word that the 25% parallel of the ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly low additionally converges on this zone and has even caught the previous two intraweek lows.

The restoration has now examined and responded to key resistance as soon as once more on the 2019 yearly open / 50% retracement of the 2016 decline at 109.68/92 we’re in search of potential inflection off this zone early within the month for steerage with the speedy restoration weak whereas under. A topside breach / shut above retains the give attention to the yearly high-week shut at 110.64 backed by a extra vital resistance confluence on the 2019/2020 high-week closes / 61.8% retracement at 111.60/98. A break / shut sub-107.76 would danger a bigger setback inside the broader uptrend in direction of the 2019 low-week shut at 106.24 with broader bullish invalidation at 105.79– each support ranges of curiosity for potential draw back exhaustion IF reached.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, assessment his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Backside line: The USD/JPY rally is as soon as once more approaching resistance at a key an infection zone at 109.68/92. From a buying and selling standpoint, a great area to scale back long-exposure / elevate protecting cease – be looking out for potential topside exhaustion. Finally, a bigger setback could supply extra favorable alternatives nearer to uptrend help with a breach above 110.64 wanted to mark resumption. I’ll publish an up to date Japanese Yen Value Outlook as soon as we get additional readability on the near-term USD/JPY technical commerce ranges – I’ll be discussing this setup in tomorrow’s Mid-Week Market Update Webinar.

Japanese Yen Dealer Sentiment – USD/JPY Value Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long USD/JPY – the ratio stands at +1.17 (53.83% of merchants are lengthy) – weak bearish/impartial studying
  • Lengthy positions are12.61% larger than yesterday and 21.88% decrease from final week
  • Brief positions are 0.82% larger than yesterday and 0.14% larger from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests USD/JPY costs could proceed to fall. Merchants are extra net-long than yesterday however much less net-long from final week. The mix of present positioning and up to date modifications offers us an extra blended USD/JPY buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Key US / Japan Information Releases

Key US / Japan Data Releases - USD/JPY Economic Calendar - Dollar Yen Event Risk

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion danger.

Earlier Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Foreign money Strategist with DailyFX

Observe Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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