Aussie Breakout Shows Signs of Exhaustion

Aussie Breakout Shows Signs of Exhaustion

Australian Greenback Technical Value Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Commerce Ranges

  • Australian Dollar technical commerce stage replace – Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD breakout probes three-year highs as momentum alerts overbought
  • Aussie outlook stays constructive above 7563– key resistance into 8100

The Australian Dollar surged greater than 4.9% in opposition to the US Dollar off the January lows with the rally stretching to recent multi-year highs this week. Whereas the broader outlook stays constructive on the heels of the current breakout, the fast advance could also be weak heading into the March open. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the AUD/USD weekly worth chart heading into the shut of the month. Evaluation my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and extra.

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Australian Greenback Value Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Ready by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In final month’s Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we famous that AUD/USD had responded to confluence uptrend resistance and to, “be looking out for draw back exhaustion forward of 7385 IF worth is certainly heading greater with a weekly shut above 7835 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.” Aussie registered a low 7563 into the February open earlier than reversing sharply greater with the advance now trying to mark a fourth consecutive week. Observe that weekly momentum is now probing multi-month highs into overbought territory and whereas the broader focus stays weighted to the topside, the fast advance could also be weak to exhaustion into the shut of the month.

Preliminary weekly resistance stands on the higher parallel (presently close to ~8020s) backed by the 2018 high-week shut / 2017 excessive at 8108/25 – look for a bigger response there IF reached. Weekly support rests at 7801 backed by the target 2021 yearly open at 7701. Finally, a break / shut under the yearly opening-range lows at 7563 could be wanted to recommend a extra important reversal is underway.

AUD Forecast

AUD Forecast

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Backside line: The Australian Greenback breakout retains the broader focus greater in worth however the advance could also be weak into the shut of the month as weekly momentum stretches into multi-year highs. From a buying and selling standpoint, look to cut back long-exposure / elevate protecting stops on a stretch in direction of the higher parallel – the chance stays for a pullback throughout the confines of the broader uptrend. Losses must be restricted to the yearly open IF worth is certainly heading greater. As all the time, keep nimble into the shut of the month. I’ll publish an up to date Australian Dollar Price Outlook as soon as we get additional readability on the near-term AUD/USD technical commerce ranges.

For a whole breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Greenback Dealer Sentiment – AUD/USD Value Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning- Technical Forecast

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-short AUD/USD – the ratio stands at -1.91 (34.38% of merchants are lengthy) – sometimes bullish studying
  • Lengthy positions are 0.81% greater than yesterday and 15.00% decrease from final week
  • Quick positions are0.97% greater than yesterday and 0.66% greater from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-short suggests AUD/USD costs could proceed to rise. Merchants are additional net-short than yesterday and final week, and the mixture of present positioning and up to date adjustments offers us a stronger AUD/USD-bullish contrarian buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% -3% 2%
Weekly -2% 5% 2%

Key Australia / US Information Releases

Key Australia / US Data Releases - AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Ausie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendarnewest financial developments and upcoming occasion threat.

Earlier Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Forex Strategist with DailyFX

Observe Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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